Positive Outlook till Union Budget

Fears of monetary tightening at home and tougher rules for US banks to invest in equities cast a shadow over the market last week. Worries of monetary tightening, however, receded for the time being on Friday, 29 January 2010 when the Reserve Bank of India left interest rates unchanged while raising cash reserve ratio by 75 basis points.

Meanwhile, US President Barack Obama stunned markets last week by unveiling new rules for US banks that would potentially restrict their size and prohibit them from certain business activities. US market recoiled on the concern that banks could begin to restrict lending activities just as the global economy is recovering from a deep recession.

BSE Sensex fell 501.72 points or 2.98% to 16,357.96 in the week ended Friday, 29 January 2010. S&P CNX Nifty tumbled 153.95 points or 3.05% to 4882.05.

BSE Mid-Cap index fell 273.86 points or 4.04% to 6,509.80 in the week. BSE Small-Cap index dipped 428.49 points or 4.95% to 8,232.68. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

Last week there were IPO of Syncom Healthcare, Thangamayi Jewellery, Vascon Engineers & Aqua Logistics. In the coming week, we have few more D B Realty, Emmbi Polyarns, NTPC and Aqua Logistics(revised).

Indian Stock market is highly oversold and a bounce back is very much anticipated. Nifty is expected to trade in the range of 4800 to 5000 in the coming week and can see a maximum upside of 5300 in this series. One could do cherry picking for the month of Feb. We see positive outlook from here to Union budget.

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